La Liga’s final exam

This is partly a weekly SUR column and partly “last-minute mental arithmetic homework for the grand finale to the Spanish football season”.

Nine of the ten remaining fixtures have either relegation or a UEFA place hanging on them. We are force-fed “the Premier League is the best league in the world” discourse, however La Liga can rightfully claim to be the most competitive.

The top five know they have qualified for the Champions League; Real Oviedo are doomed to relegation; yet the rest have something to fight for.

It has been a crazy season. When I commentated on Osasuna a couple of weeks ago, the narrative at the start of the game was “a push for Europe”; when they lost, it became “a battle against the drop”.

Historic clubs like Valencia and Sevilla have played all season with the dark cloud of relegation hanging over them. But now, Sevilla are safe; Valencia have a chance of qualifying for the Conference League.

I have quadruple-checked the sentence above. It is revision time.

The easy one. If Celta avoid defeat to Sevilla, they take sixth place and a Europa League spot.

If they lose and Getafe beat Osasuna, then the unfashionable Madrid team will be in the second-level UEFA competition. This is because Liga places are determined on head-to-head results rather than goal difference.

Now it gets complicated: Real Sociedad will also compete in the Europa League as winners of the Copa del Rey; Rayo Vallecano can join them in the competition, if they win the Conference League final next week.

It could be seven teams in Europe or nine, depending on where Real Sociedad and Rayo finish in the final standings. So, Athletic Bilbao, Real Sociedad, Valencia, Rayo, and Getafe could all make it or still lose out.

Are you still with me? Complicated, isn’t it?

When it comes to relegation, Oviedo were doomed weeks ago. Mallorca and Girona have a stay-of-execution. Elche, Osasuna and Levante are sweating and doing their sums.

Mallorca are second-from-bottom and would fancy their chances of beating the already-relegated Oviedo with home advantage.

A quirk of the fixture computer has drawn the two teams ahead of them - Girona and Elche - together on the final day. The Spanish media bill games as “cup finals” from the first week of the season; this match-up truly is.

Only a win will be good enough for Girona. Elche are probably safe with a draw. If they lose, we enter the dark world of head-to-heads and potential mini-leagues. A few years ago, one of our statisticians told me that there were over 1,000 permutations. When he attempted to draw up a spreadsheet, it proved impossible.

And so it goes right down to the wire. Luckily, I’m commentating on Real Madrid v Athletic Club - which is pretty straightforward; but the developments elsewhere will appear on-screen.

Wish me luck with my final exam!