The CEO of Malaga's first five-star hotel believes this summer's success depends more on prices than on occupancy rates

At the start of the summer season, Meliá CEO Gabriel Escarrer speaks to SUR about the outlook for tourism, Spain's growing appeal as a safe haven amid global geopolitical tensions and the challenges facing the economy.

- How is the summer season shaping up?

In principle, it should be a good season, although I would say that with a degree of caution. If the conflict between Iran and the US continues, it could significantly increase the cost of aviation fuel. We must not forget that 86 per cent of the tourists who come to Spain arrive by air. Without transport, there is no tourism. So there is some concern.

It is clear that this conflict is fuelling inflation and affecting consumers' spending power. If it is resolved within days or weeks, I am sure the impact will be more limited. If it drags on, however, it could take its toll. For now, I would say we can prepare for a good tourist season, but with considerable caution until the conflict is resolved.

- Will it be better than last year?

Yes, because growth will be driven more by room rates than by occupancy levels. The most positive development is that the focus is no longer on the number of tourists arriving, but on how much they are spending. I am convinced that growth in tourist spending will once again be more than double the growth in visitor numbers. Focusing on quality tourism is the right path and it is one we must continue to build together.

- How much are prices likely to rise?

We said previously that increases would probably be in the high single digits, but much depends on the conflict because the Costa del Sol and Marbella are heavily reliant on visitors from the Middle East. Alongside American and Asian travellers, they are among the highest-spending visitors. It is a market that is very important to us.

- Are you noticing a 'safe haven effect' with German, British and Nordic tourists choosing not to travel to destinations closer to the conflict?

Without a doubt. Airlines plan their schedules months in advance and we are already seeing them redirecting flight slots towards Spain at the expense of destinations in North Africa and areas closer to the far East. Spain, along with Italy, Greece and Portugal, is increasingly viewed as a safe destination.

I always say we should succeed because of our own strengths, not because of problems elsewhere. However, we must take advantage of the opportunity that this period of geopolitical instability presents and work to retain these visitors. We have noticed this particularly in the family tourism segment.

- How do you think Spanish holidaymakers will respond?

If air travel becomes more expensive because of rising fuel costs, the Costa del Sol, with its excellent road and rail connections, will become an even more attractive option for domestic tourists travelling by car. That tends to be a more last-minute market. I am convinced that this destination will be one of the main beneficiaries.

- Could Spain's political situation also affect domestic tourism?

The truth is that we wake up every day to developments that would once have seemed astonishing and we are becoming accustomed to them. That is probably the worst thing that can happen.

I think society in general (and Spanish society in particular), has become used to living separately from politics. It is striking how politics seems to move in one direction while businesses move in another, seeking as much certainty as possible. So far, however, it is not affecting us.