Malaga province's population has been growing at twice the national rate since the start of the century

This represents a population increase of 43.53%, double the rate of the entire country of Spain, which stands at just 22.77%.

In Spain as a whole, the increase has been 9.2 million, rising from 40.47 million inhabitants in 2000 to 49.7 million in 2026.

In absolute terms, the Costa del Sol province ranks fifth, behind Madrid (+1.8 million), Barcelona (+1.2 million), Alicante (+659,103) and Valencia (+619,445).

However, this increase has not seen Malaga move up the population rankings. It remains the sixth most populous province: behind those mentioned above and after Seville, which is fifth.

What has happened in recent years is that Malaga has narrowed the gap separating it from the province of Seville. The population gap between the two provinces has been reduced to less than half: in 2000, Malaga had 445,000 fewer inhabitants than Seville, while in 2026 the gap stands at around 187,000 residents.

According to the latest report from the INE, the Costa del Sol province will exceed two million inhabitants in 2035 and overtake Seville in terms of population by 2037.

So far this century, Seville has gained just 291,447 inhabitants, meaning that its population growth has been limited to 17%. Its growth has therefore been lower than that recorded for the country as a whole.

Malaga is the fifth province in Spain in terms of the absolute number of new residents, but it ranks eighth in terms of relative population growth.

Topping the ranking is Guadalajara, whose population has grown by 73% since 2000 (it has gained 123,860 residents, bringing its total to over 293,000). In second place are the Balearic Islands (which have grown by 54%, to 1.26 million) and in third place is Girona, with an increase of 51%, to 838,703 residents.

Fourth is an Andalusian province which, as a result, has become the region's most dynamically growing area: Almeria, which has also seen its population rise by around 50%, an increase of 263,819 residents to 785,914 as of 1 April 2026. Rounding off the list of provinces growing faster than Malaga are Tarragona (49.75%), Alicante (46%) and Toledo (45.74%).

The analysis of senior sociologist at Malaga University (UMA) Rafael Grande can be summed up in a single sentence: "Malaga has become an aspirational destination."

Judging by the data, this applies not only to immigrants from other countries, both poor and rich, but also to people from other parts of Spain. Geography Professor Juan José Natera explains: "People tend to move to places where they are likely to find work, so that would explain why the province of Malaga has grown proportionally more than Spain as a whole."

In addition, people who are not originally from the province come and start families here, which further adds to the rise.

Not all of Spain's provinces have seen population growth in recent years. In fact, a dozen of them have experienced a decline so far this century. Specifically, Zamora, with an 18% decline in its population (from 36,415 to 165,362), has suffered the greatest decline since 2000, followed by Ourense, Lugo, León and Palencia, which have all seen a fall of around 10%.

Jaén has also lost 3.8% of its population, that is, nearly 25,000 residents, over the last 25 years.

The other provinces that currently have fewer inhabitants than in 2000 are Ávila, Soria and Cuenca.

After Jaén, the Andalusian province with the lowest population growth is Cordoba (+1.4 or 10,837 inhabitants, bringing the total to 772,081). Meanwhile, Cadiz, Seville, Granada and Huelva have grown, in that order, by between 14% and 15% so far this century.

The fact that only the provinces of Almeria and Malaga have grown more than Spain as a whole means that the region has also recorded a population increase slightly lower than that of the country as a whole, at just 20%.

In total, Andalucía has gained almost one and a half million inhabitants, bringing its total to nearly 8.76 million, which maintains its status as the country's most populous region, ahead of Catalonia, which has 8.2 million, having gained almost two million since 2000. The only other region to have gained more inhabitants than Andalucía is Madrid (1.86 million, bringing its total to just under 7.2 million).

Data on population trends in Andalucía so far this century shows that Malaga accounts for one in every three new residents in the region: 550,132 of the 1,472,488 people by which the region's population has grown. According to the INE's demographic projections, over the next 15 years Malaga will account for two out of every three new residents in Andalucía.

Rafael Grande warns, however, that Malaga's current status as an "aspirational destination" may be under threat.

"Malaga needs workers and is a major draw, but that is at risk when people feel they cannot make a home here. There is much talk of the high cost of housing and a bit less, though this is also very important, about care for children and the elderly," he says.

Perhaps the risk the professor warns of has already materialised, if only in the INE's latest population survey. Previous reports have estimated that Malaga would exceed two million inhabitants and that Seville's population would reach that figure by 2031: a milestone now pushed back to 2035 and 2037, respectively.

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