Malaga province to see increase of 130,000 over-64s over the next decade, but only 17,000 people of working age

The province will also see an increase in its working-age population: 16,938 people aged between 16 and 64, bringing the total to 1.28 million, up 1.3%. This is indeed significant, given that Andalucía is likely to lose around 290,000 people of working age in the 2030s. Malaga will escape this drop.

These figures come from a report by Adecco based on demographic projections from the INE national institute of statistics, in which the company expresses concern about the decline in the working-age population in Spain.

According to projections for the whole country up to 2050, Spain will lose 1.8 million inhabitants from the 16-64 age group from 2030 and over the following 20 years.

In Andalucía, only one other province (apart from Malaga) will see an increase in its working-age population over the next decade: Almeria.

Between 2030 and 2040, the province will gain 20,566 more potential workers, up 3.7%, which represents a relatively greater rise than that in Malaga.

The labour force in Cadiz will fall by 74,713 people or 9%, while in Cordoba the decline will be around 54,000 people or 11.3%. In Granada, the number of 16-64 people will fall by nearly 30,000, that is, nearly 5%, which is the same percentage decline forecast for Huelva, where, in absolute terms, the working-age population will fall by nearly 17,000.

Jaén will be the province to suffer the greatest proportional loss, with a fall of over 14%, which translates into 53,646 fewer people of working age. Seville, in turn, will lose more than 97,000 people from the 16-64 age group, that is, 7.4%.

Although Malaga compares favourably with the rest of the region, as it is set to be one of the few provinces to see an increase in its working-age population, the Adecco report highlights that the number of over-64s will grow at a much faster rate, increasing by 132,845 between 2030 and 2040, to well over half a million.

This represents a 33% increase for this age group, the highest in the whole of Andalucía.

The Adecco report calls for "anticipating ageing and making the most of all available talent", even in Malaga, a province that will experience dynamic demographic growth in the coming years.

Adecco conveys a similar message to Almeria. The province will retain a comparatively young demographic structure in 2040, although the over-64s will account for 22.4% of the population, far below the 32% they will represent in Jaén or Cordoba.

As for Seville, the report notes that generational replacement "will make it particularly necessary to retain senior talent, help those facing barriers to employment and match the available skills to the needs of businesses".

Across Spain as a whole, while the working-age population is projected to fall by 1.8 million between 2030 and 2050, the number of over-64s is expected to rise by 4.8 million.

Adecco advocates for inclusion as "one of the key responses". "Our labour market needs to harness the talent of older professionals, people with disabilities and other sections of the population who currently face discrimination or barriers to participating in the labour market," the report states.

Francisco Mesonero, chief executive of the Adecco foundation, explains: "The demographic challenge requires us to broaden the pool of available talent and place inclusion at the heart of our response: we cannot afford to allow people with disabilities, women at risk of exclusion and others facing barriers to employment to be left on the sidelines while businesses face a growing shortage of skilled workers."

He stresses the need to invest in employability, guidance, training, accessibility and support, as well as retaining and upskilling older workers, reducing the mismatch between available skills and those demanded by businesses and facilitating a transition that is aligned with the real needs of the labour market.

On this last point, the report emphasises that migration will be "a structural necessity to offset the decline in the working-age population and meet the talent needs of the business sector".

Explore the main Malaga province regional section