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THE EURO ZONE

After effects

The ricochets of the Madrid election - itself triggered by seismic shifts in the government of Murcia earlier this year - are headed in Sánchez's direction

Mark Nayler

Friday, 7 May 2021, 13:55

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Pedro Sánchez sent his spending plans for Spain's EU recovery funds to Brussels this week, but he might not be in power long enough to execute them. The regional election in Madrid on Tuesday - in which one of the Socialist leader's few outspoken critics more than doubled her seats in the region's assembly - was in essence a vote of no confidence in the PSOE-led coalition government. And it lost that vote, badly.

Throughout 2020 and for the first part of this year, Isabel Díaz Ayuso has often been alone in questioning Sánchez's shotgun Covid tactics, and arguing instead for lighter restrictions to keep the economy healthy. When her Popular Party's national leader, Pablo Casado, ought to have been railing against the national administration, Ayuso took his place, becoming the voice of an otherwise neutered opposition.

She argued that the lockdown restrictions were too tough, that they were ruining lives and businesses, and that Spain's regions should be able to decide, for themselves, how to tackle the pandemic. Tuesday's result proves that Ayuso's libertarian, federalist approach enjoys more support in the Spanish capital than the Socialists' methodology - namely, shutting everything down, indiscriminately, for indefinite periods.

The PSOE's junior coalition partner, Podemos, is also losing momentum, even though it increased its number of Madrid seats on Tuesday. But when Pablo Iglesias quit politics that same day, the party was suddenly robbed of much of its identity and appeal. It can't rely on his first-pumping speeches of defiance and hope any more, nor is it obvious what will replace them as a means of galvanising voters. Perhaps Podemos' best work is already behind it, though: in his farewell address, Iglesias said that he was proud to have "led a project that has changed the history of our country".

Podemos' rise from rebellious newcomer to national government within seven years is a remarkable achievement. But since realising its wildest dreams, the party has struggled for clout in the Socialist-led coalition, a task which will be even harder for Iglesias' successor, employment minister Yolanda Díaz. There was also something wasteful and anti-climatic about Iglesias' departure from politics this week: it's as if, after working so hard to achieve national presence, the changes he sought didn't come soon enough, so that's it, he's off. Or perhaps, like Sánchez's cannily timed resignation as PSOE leader in late 2016, this retirement is merely the first move in a long game.

The ricochets of the Madrid election - itself triggered by seismic shifts in the government of Murcia earlier this year - are headed in Sánchez's direction. Rather than settling down to spend Brussels' recovery funds, the Socialist leader first needs to survive the political earthquake that's rumbling towards Moncloa. Unless he succeeds, he may lose his sliding, shaking grip on power completely.

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