The noisy media reporting of Brexit and tensions generated by Donald Trump's new protectionist trade policies aren't keeping the analysts at Analistas Económicos de Andalucía (AEA) awake at night.
These experts in local economic analysis, working for Unicaja bank, have ruled out any "sudden braking" of the local economy in the short term. Although they believe there will eventually be a "slowdown", they confirm that consumer and investment indexes will still be positive and that there's no reason to go into panic mode.
The analysts have confirmed their local GDP growth forecasts for 2019 at 2.3% for Andalucía and 2.6% for Malaga province, including the Costa del Sol, the highest in the Andalucía region. In their view, the Andalusian economy will grow 1.9% in 2020, above the national average, with Malaga province expected to do better than the rest of the region with around 2%.
The forecasts were announced in the regular quarterly report by AEA which was presented by Fundación Unicaja, the bank's charitable foundation.
Local job creation should grow at a good pace this year and continue into 2020, although at a slower rate, the report says. The AEA forecast is that the numbers in work will grow 2.9% in Andalucía, with 2.4% in the service sector, industry (3.4%) and construction (8.7%). The numbers out of work will fall some 9.2%, compared to 2018.
Presenting their report, the authors said that neither Brexit nor increased tariffs are expected to slow down the local economy.